Another hot day on Thursday after breaking temperature record Wednesday

We've got another hot day ahead of us on Thursday.

The dangerous heat is back and will stick around for the rest of the week. A heat advisory is in place again on Thursday. This is only the 4th heat advisory on record in the month of September for central North Carolina.

Weather Alert Days are in place Wednesday thru Friday as the heat index is likely to reach 105 or higher.

• Thursday (Weather Alert Day): Intense and near-record heat. Highs near 100. The heat index could climb to 108.
• Friday (Weather Alert Day): Intense and near-record heat. Highs in the upper 90s. The heat index could climb to 107. Heat Advisories are likely. Watch for strong-to-severe storms late afternoon into the evening.
• Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. Highs in the mid 90s.

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Rare September heat wave

Wednesday's Heat Advisory is only the 3rd heat advisory that has been issued in the month of September by our National Weather Service. The last heat advisory in September was on Sept. 3, 2020.

High temperatures reach 97 to 99 degrees, and the heat index will easily surpass that. 

This isn't just a one-off kind of deal. This intense heat lingers through Friday, coming close to record highs each day. The mornings could also feature record warmth.

North Carolina summers are supposed to be hot, but heat this intense this late in the year is rare. We've only seen 16 days at or above 99 degrees in the month of September since 1887. That equates to a historical 0.38% chance of happening.

Please stay hydrated and avoid long periods of time outside. 

Labor Day Weekend won't be quite as hot

A better chance of rain returns Friday, thanks to a front that slowly glides this way.

It will tap into the intense heat, which could lead to some stronger storms. 

Saturday is trending a tad wetter. Rain chances are now at 60%.

Some of the storms Friday and Saturday could become severe and produce damaging wind gusts. the Triangle is already under a level 2 severe risk Friday.

Once the front sags south, we won't see as much heat for Labor Day weekend.

As we enter September, you might wonder when we typically see our last 90-degree day. It appears that the date for our last 90-degree day is moving farther into September. The all-time average last 90-degree day is September 12th. Looking at the data since 2000, that day is pushed to September 15th. Looking at just the last 10 years, that day is pushed to September 20th.

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NC drought status improves a bit

The latest drought report on Thursday, Aug. 27, showed the drought held steady again with some small improvements.

An inland portion of our southern coastal counties exited the drought from Wilmington to New Bern, and severe drought conditions improved to moderate drought in Sampson, Duplin and Cumberland counties. 

A pocket of extreme drought in our northern viewing area grew slightly into Northampton County, and Western North Carolina saw more drought removal extending into Caldwell and Avery counties. 

Most of the state was projected to be out of the drought by the end of month based on the drought outlook released on Aug. 4, but as we end the month it's looking more likely that it will still linger for most into September. The next outlook should release in the next few days.

The updated August drought outlook forecasts improvements in the drought thanks to continued rain chances. Some areas shaded in green, including the Triangle, could clear the drought entirely this month.

"The drought has been eliminated for some of our coastal areas," Skinner added. "Areas towards the coast near Wilmington are still under extreme or exceptional drought. The drought is still ongoing, but it is certainly a lot more manageable than it was just a month ago."

What's active in the tropics?

Tropical Storm Edouard formed in the Gulf Monday evening and made landfall on the southwestern tip of Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.

This system brought heavy rain to southeast Texas. Homes and businesses were flooded and water rescues were underway. Some have seen over a foot of rain.

El Niño to Super El Niño

Conditions for a Super El Niño have not been reached, yet but we could experience those conditions by the end of the year. For this to occur sea temperatures must be at least two degrees Celsius above normal for an average of three months. Currently we are at 1.5 just above that number and climbing.  

7-day forecast for central North Carolina.

• Thursday: Partly cloudy and hot. Highs near 100.
• Friday: Partly cloudy with late-day storms. Highs in the upper 90s.
• Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. Highs in the mid 90s.
• Sunday: Partly cloudy and not as hot. Highs in the mid 80s.
• Labor Day: Partly cloudy and warm. Highs in the mid 80s.
• Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s.
• Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s.