Drought status: Recent rain provides decent drought relief in eastern half of NC

Summer thunderstorms have provided some drought relief to the eastern half of North Carolina and added a foot of water to Falls Lake, but extreme and exceptional drought persists across central and eastern North Carolina.

Less of central North Carolina is in an extreme drought this week thanks to the rain. However, we still need much more rain to bust the drought, and many communities, including Raleigh, have enforced water restrictions as a result.

Our current drought began in late summer of 2025.

July 16, 2026: The July 16 national drought report showed minor improvement across the board in areas experiencing extreme drought on the eastern half of North Carolina.

The area of exceptional drought that has impacted the Triangle has backed off a little and no longer includes Wake County. Orange and Durham counties remain in exceptional or extreme drought conditions. 

Most notably, extreme drought receded by nearly 11% from the previous week, the largest decrease since late May.

The water restrictions across central North Carolina mainly apply to outdoor watering, including the use of sprinklers and hoses, and even rules about if you can wash your car or fill your swimming pool. Find a list of water restrictions and what they mean here.

Amid the drought, Raleigh is also weighing the possibility of more water restrictions. Those restrictions could come at any point as the city deems necessary, as the Raleigh City Council last week approved changes that will allow the city to not only move to Stage 2 water restrictions earlier than previously planned but to also modify the plan.

"I certainly think it's possible to be our worst drought on record," WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth explained. "We really need a tropical system (maybe more than one) to get us out of this drought. With a strong El Niño, we expect a below-normal tropical season. So, it doesn't look great for us."

If it feels like this summer has been especially brutal, you're not imagining it. While the lack of rainfall is an obvious part of the drought, there's another side effect that many people don't realize. Drought conditions can make hot weather even hotter.

The extended drought and heat has also impacted farmers having to make some tough decisions ahead of fall if conditions don't significantly improve.

Raleigh officials caution we could be seeing a "drought of record," the most serious drought the area has ever experienced, thanks to the absence of precipitation in the first half of the year.

"We need it to rain in Durham, Granville County and the northern part of Wake County to make an impact. It really needs to rain at the right place and ideally for a long period of time," Raleigh Water assistant director Ed Buchan said.

One thing that's sorely needed - rain at Falls Lake, which is Raleigh's primary source of drinking water. The Army Corps of Engineers' latest report says Falls Lake was around 245 feet as of Thursday, which means it has 64% of its water supply pool remaining.

"If it's raining in downtown Raleigh, for instance, or North Raleigh or basically anywhere in Raleigh, that's not helping Falls Lake," said Ed Buchan with the city of Raleigh. 

In Durham over the past week, water levels in Lake Michie and Little River Reservoir were both down. Lake Michie was at 38.8% of the target level while Little River Reservoir was as 56.4% of target.

 "Durham has two smaller reservoirs upstream of Falls Lake that are, of course, below full," Buchan said. "So when those are below, water is not leaving those reservoirs."

Buchan said in June 2025, the area's average demand for water was around 62 million gallons a day. For this June, it was around 69 million gallons.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows that the drought will likely continue through at least the end of September.

We need nearly 3 feet of rain by the end of 2026 to get rid of the drought, WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels explains. That equates to more than 1 foot of rain within a month, more than 2 feet of rain within three months and nearly 3 feet of rain in six months.

WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said so much rain is needed to end our drought that it could take a hurricane or multiple tropical systems. Hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the current forecast is calling for a slightly less active hurricane season than average. 

Most intense drought on record: 2007-2008

Our last major drought between 2007 and 2008 is known as NC's most intense drought on record. It's also the last time Raleigh imposed water restrictions.

According to Wilmoth, it took a tropical system, Tropical Storm Fay, to beat that drought. 

"Fay brought up to 5 inches of rain to central NC," Wilmoth said. "While it wasn't the one single factor to end the drought, it was the final boost we needed to completely recover from the drought."

The U.S. Drought Monitor is an aggregation of measurements including precipitation, soil moisture, evaporation, temperature and reservoir levels that classifies conditions at six levels:

• None: Normal conditions
• Abnormally dry
• Moderate drought
• Severe drought
• Extreme drought
• Exceptional drought

As of July 13, parts of the Triangle remain in exceptional drought. In an extreme drought, major crop and pasture losses are expected, reservoirs and wells are at very low levels and many municipalities limit water use.