Drought status: Rain added a foot of water to Falls Lake, still 10 feet below last summer's level

Summer thunderstorms added a foot of water to Falls Lake between July 6 and 13, 2026, but extreme drought persists across central and eastern North Carolina.

Much of central North Carolina is in an extreme drought, and many communities, including Raleigh, have enforced water restrictions as a result. Our current drought began in late summer of 2025.

July 13, 2026: Falls Lake had a full foot more of water than the week before. But that level -- 246.19 feet -- was still 10 feet lower than the level in July 2025.

July 9, 2026: Thursday's drought monitor report brought mixed results, showing slight improvements in small portions of the area but worsening conditions elsewhere in the state.

It's important to note the data used for the most recent current drought report does not include the rain that fell July 7 and 8, since the data is submitted on Tuesday mornings. We won't see that rainfall reflected until next week's report on July 16.

Exceptional drought is down from 7% to 6% with improvement seen in the Triangle around northern Wake County and southern Orange and Durham counties, but elsewhere extreme drought is up from 42% to 50% after expanding back into Nash, Edgecombe and Wilson counties and worsening in Cumberland and Sampson counties.

On the far southeast corner of the state, Brunswick County and a portion Columbus County also worsened to exceptional drought status.

So, we saw some slight improvement for a very small part of the area, but other spots have seen worsening conditions.

WRAL meteorologists have said it still will take much more rain, likely a tropical storm or hurricane, to end this drought, which could be a record drought.

WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner said the rain we saw over the past few days does not mean Raleigh water customers are in the clear.

"I know people are excited about the rain that we saw over the last couple of days, but we still have 10 to 15 in of rain to get out of the drought," Gardner explains. "So this definitely helps ... but it is still going to take probably months before we get out of this drought, unfortunately.”

July 2, 2026 (previous week's report): Our drought has improved, but only slightly.

Our entire area remains under a drought, and WRAL meteorologists said last week's rain did little to help. WRAL meteorologists have said it could take a tropical system to get rid of our drought status.

"The exceptional drought went from 7% last week to 6.6% this week," according to WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth. "The extreme drought went from 45% to 42%."

"I certainly think it's possible to be our worst drought on record," WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth explained. "We really need a tropical system (maybe more than one) to get us out of this drought. With a strong El Niño, we expect a below-normal tropical season. So, it doesn't look great for us."

Raleigh officials caution we could be seeing a "drought of record," the most serious drought the area has ever experienced, thanks to the absence of precipitation in the first half of the year.

"We need it to rain in Durham, Granville County and the northern part of Wake County to make an impact. It really needs to rain at the right place and ideally for a long period of time," Raleigh Water assistant director Ed Buchan said.

One thing that's sorely needed - rain at Falls Lake, which is Raleigh's primary source of drinking water. The Army Corps of Engineers' latest report says Falls Lake was around 245 feet as of Thursday, which means it has 64% of its water supply pool remaining.

"If it's raining in downtown Raleigh, for instance, or North Raleigh or basically anywhere in Raleigh, that's not helping Falls Lake," said Ed Buchan with the city of Raleigh. 

In Durham over the past week, water levels in Lake Michie and Little River Reservoir were both down. Lake Michie was at 38.8% of the target level while Little River Reservoir was as 56.4% of target.

 "Durham has two smaller reservoirs upstream of Falls Lake that are, of course, below full," Buchan said. "So when those are below, water is not leaving those reservoirs."

Buchan said in June 2025, the area's average demand for water was around 62 million gallons a day. For this June, it was around 69 million gallons.

B. Everett Jordan Lake supplies water for the towns of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Morrisville, Pittsboro and Hillsborough, the city of Durham, Chatham County and Orange County. The Army Corps of Engineers said the normal pool level for the lake is 216 feet. As of Thursday, it was three feet below that level at 213.

"When the lake level is down a few feet we're always concerned, but at the same time we're measured and cautious," said Jamie Revels, Cary's utilities director. "It's a very resilient watershed, and and we're very thankful to have such a robust water supply to the lake."

The town of Cary tracks the number of days remaining in its water supply every week. The number of days was 185 as of Thursday. Revels said in order for the town to trigger state one water restrictions, that number would need to reah 120 days.

"In terms of our share of the water allocation in Jordan Lake, we feel confident about our share of the allocation to service, you know, for now and into the future," said Revels.

While the lake level is not impacting the communities it serves at this time, the Army Corps of Engineers said the amount of rain we've seen in previous days is not enought for it to fuly recover.

"All the way up to Greensboro, we need a multi-inch area-wide event to really see some true recovery," said Jon Bannerman, a natural resource specialist with the Army Corps of Engineers.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows that the drought will likely continue through at least the end of September.

We need nearly 3 feet of rain by the end of 2026 to get rid of the drought, WRAL meteorologist Chris Michaels explains. That equates to more than 1 foot of rain within a month, more than 2 feet of rain within three months and nearly 3 feet of rain in six months.

WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said so much rain is needed to end our drought that it could take a hurricane or multiple tropical systems. Hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the current forecast is calling for a slightly less active hurricane season than average. 

Most intense drought on record: 2007-2008

Our last major drought between 2007 and 2008 is known as NC's most intense drought on record. It's also the last time Raleigh imposed water restrictions.

According to Wilmoth, it took a tropical system, Tropical Storm Fay, to beat that drought. 

"Fay brought up to 5 inches of rain to central NC," Wilmoth said. "While it wasn't the one single factor to end the drought, it was the final boost we needed to completely recover from the drought."

Longest drought on record: 1998-2002

According to Wilmoth, our longest drought on record in North Carolina extended four years from 1998 to 2002. Parts of the state had a rainfall deficit between 60 and 70 inches during that time.

"It took multiple tropical storms and hurricanes to end that drought," Wilmoth said. "Hurricane Isidore (September 2002), Hurricane Lili (October 2002) and Tropical Storm Hanna (September 2002) all brought beneficial rain to help pull us out of that very long drought. Those tropical systems combined with a wetter pattern change overall is what ended the drought."

The water restrictions across central North Carolina mainly apply to outdoor watering, including the use of sprinklers and hoses, and even rules about if you can wash your car or fill your swimming pool. Find a list of water restrictions and what they mean here.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is an aggregation of measurements including precipitation, soil moisture, evaporation, temperature and reservoir levels that classifies conditions at six levels:

• None: Normal conditions
• Abnormally dry
• Moderate drought
• Severe drought
• Extreme drought
• Exceptional drought

As of July 13, parts of the Triangle remain in exceptional drought. In an extreme drought, major crop and pasture losses are expected, reservoirs and wells are at very low levels and many municipalities limit water use.