High beef prices reach ranchers, restaurants endure amid bleak economic forecast

A trip to the grocery store is costing much more than it used to. In fact, newly released data from the Consumer Price Index indicate annual inflation rose in May to over 4%, confirming consumer prices are at a three-year high. The price of beef is far outpacing inflation - hurting the restaurateur and helping the rancher.

When Smash Masters opened in Zebulon in March of 2025, the price of ground beef was $5.79 per pound retail. Since then, it has risen by a staggering 19 percent to $6.90 per pound, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means it'll cost more for burger and a lot more to run a burger restaurant.

Robert Thompson owns Smash Masters and feels the increasing cost of beef, patty by patty. There's no removing burgers from the menu at a burger joint. But it's a fight. He says in the last week, wholesale ground beef went up by 20 cents per pound.

"We have to find ways to cut something somewhere else, because beef is our main source of business. We do beef, Phillies, and smash burgers. That's who we are," Thompson said.

While he cuts costs and grapples with raising prices, there's a flip side.

Fourth-generation rancher Natalie Wester Farmer says the nearly 18-month steady rise in beef prices at the store has only recently reached the farm. Her family's namesake, Wester Farms, is now getting $2 more per pound for its cattle than last year.

"We did not see it until recently, though. Everything else was going up. Feed prices were going up. Fuel was going up. Land prices were going up. But cattle itself was not actually going up until recently," Farmer said.

Farmer sells a variety of cuts at their feed store in Franklin County, which she says she priced with the consumer in mind.

"We wanted to stay in line, and we didn't want to be outrageously priced. If you want to go to Wegman's, or wherever, we’ll be in line with them. The difference is, it was born and raised here," she said, gesturing to a wall of coolers with more than a dozen cuts, including Tomahawk steaks.

The Farmers also grow row crops and are feeling the effects the drought is having on their 350-acre operation. Beyond produce, Wester Farms has more than 450 momma cows, which they have been able to keep. Other ranchers have not been as lucky, especially given the extreme drought spreading across much of North Carolina.

But it was the prolonged dry weather across the country last year that started the beef prices soaring. Many ranchers across the Midwest and Texas sold off their cattle, unable to front the cost of feed to supplement grass that couldn't grow. A 75-year low in the cattle supply has created higher demand and higher prices, which economists expect will last through next summer.

"It's been almost like a perfect storm of events, where over the last year and a half we've had tariffs impacting prices, tariffs on steel, aluminum, fertilizer, that impacted farmers, both cattle farmers and feed farmers. The other issues that the weather hasn't gotten any better. Droughts have been impacting all those things. That's why futures are going up, because none of those things have gotten any better," said Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

Somewhat surprising to everyone involved is consumers have not turned away from buying ground beef – or other more expensive cuts, like steak.

"So, if you're thinking about the time period, you know we're in the summer, we have the fireworks, we're the Fourth of July, and people are very excited about it, especially the 250th anniversary of America, and so people are going to still continue purchasing beef, ground beef steak, they'll be grilling," Ajilore said. "Then after that, in August and September, if things are still like they are, then people will start thinking about shifting how they spend, what they spend on, maybe shifting to other meats like chicken and poultry."

Thompson has absorbed what costs he can, knowing that futures predict it will be a while before he'll see beef prices fall. He’s hoping customers understand they’re not just paying for the burger but for the experience of going out for good food.

"We do have people walk in and look at the menu and turn around, walk out. But what they fail to realize is not only am I paying for the groceries, but ... I had to pay for the people to cook it, the electricity to run the building, the gas to run the stoves, and all that factors into the bottom line," Thompson said. "No, I can't compete with going to grocery store and taking it home and cooking it, because it is what is. But if you want the best burger anywhere around, then it's here."

Thompson said he has no plans to curtail operations or shut the doors because of rising beef prices.