Tracking the tropics: Tropical system in Gulf could bring rain to Triangle

Tropical storms and hurricanes are known to be destructive, even deadly, in North Carolina.

Every North Carolina resident and visitor should be weather aware – tracking the tropics for what is coming and preparing your home and family to weather any storm.

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Hurricane season runs from June 1 and ends Nov. 30. The most active time is late August into October, but it's possible to see a hurricane make landfall any time of the year.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One developed on Tuesday in the Gulf. It will bring heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flooding across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday.

It would be called "Arthur" if it develops into a tropical storm.

"It may just be a tropical storm for 24 hours because it's not going to spend very much time over water," meteorologist Kat Campbell said. 

Parts of the Gulf coast are under a tropical storm watch. It includes parts of Texas and Mississippi.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could also bring North Carolina much-needed rain in the coming days.

Moisture associated with this system brings a heightened chance of showers and storms locally Friday. Some of these could be strong due to the increased wind and spin generated by this storm. 

The WRAL Severe Weather Center is forecasting a 60% chance for rain on Friday. 

Clouds move in Thursday night. Central North Carolina could see scattered showers or storms Friday afternoon through the evening, but skies will clear by Saturday morning in time for the Carolina Hurricanes Stanley Cup celebration parade.

The WRAL Severe Weather team has forecasted a below-average number of systems this Atlantic hurricane season due to a strong El Niño, but there are certain areas we need to monitor closely.

The predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are as follows:

• Number of named storms: 11-14 (average is 15)
• Number of hurricanes: 5-7 (average is 7)
• Number of major hurricanes: 2-3 (average is 4)

Over the past 30 years, an average hurricane season would see:

• 15 named storms – those of tropical storm strength or greater
• 7 hurricanes – Categories 1 through 5. Category 1 storms, with wind speeds of 74 to 95 mph, can still do damage to trees, toss outdoor furniture and knock out power.
• 4 major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of a minimum 111 mph. These are storms that can blow off roofs and flatten buildings.

From late spring through the fall, there is always the chance that a hurricane will form in the Atlantic Ocean and impact North Carolina. While rough surf and overwash is a danger along the coast, hurricanes can bring torrential downpours, inland flooding, downed trees and even tornadoes to the Triangle.

Property owners should consider flood insurance and make sure to keep up home maintenance so that roofs, shingle and outdoor furniture are secure when high winds blow.

Make an emergency plan and communicate with each family member so that you can make a choice – to stay or go.

No matter where you live, you could lose power. It always pays to be prepared for a storm that can knock out power with a survival kit that includes non-perishable food, cash and plenty of clean, bottled water.

Since the 1950s, hurricanes have been given names to avoid confusion and streamline communications. There are six alphabetical lists of names, each a mix of traditional male and female names, so the same name may be used for different storms that happen years apart.

When a hurricane produces severe or devastating damage, that name is "retired" or removed from the list by the World Meteorological Organization.

Here is the list of names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:

• Arthur
• Bertha
• Cristobal
• Dolly
• Edouard
• Fay
• Gonzalo
• Hanna
• Isaias
• Josephine
• Kyle
• Leah
• Marco
• Nana
• Omar
• Paulette
• Rene
• Sally
• Teddy
• Vicky
• Wilfred

In July 2025, Chantal hit North Carolina as a tropical depression, dumping 9 to 12 inches of rain and prompting flooding in low-lying areas. Businesses at Eastgate Crossing in Chapel Hill were especially impacted by severe flooding hit the area, and dozens of people in Durham had to be rescued by boat when the Eno River flooded.

In September 2024, Hurricane Helene ravaged western North Carolina. Helene killed at least 107 people in the state. Helene has caused billions of dollars in damage as parts of western North Carolina are still rebuilding, even months later. The state government has already spent about $1.6 billion in Helene aid and are still sorting out how much more to allocate in relief efforts.

One of North Carolina's most destructive hurricanes, Hurricane Fran in September 1996, blasted the Triangle with winds at near-hurricane strength. It left a landscape littered without trees in virtually every neighborhood and power outages that lasted for more than a week.

Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 inundated eastern North Carolina, including Rocky Mount, Wilson, Tarboro and Princeville, and put entire communities under water. The storm destroyed more than 8,000 homes and damaged 67,000 more.

In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew skirted the coast but generated devastating flooding across central and eastern North Carolina. The hurricane dumped more than a foot of rain 100 miles inland, swelling streams and rivers to levels above what Hurricane Floyd produced in 1999.

Hurricane Florence, in September 2018, brought a record 8.27-foot storm surge. Over the next three days, it produced up to 30 inches of rainfall over eastern North Carolina. Interstates 95 and 40 were both closed due to flooding, and 42 people died across the state.

Arguably, the most powerful hurricane in NC, Hurricane Hazel in October 1954 caused major flooding and damage as it made landfall. More than 1,000 people were killed, and it caused about $409 million in damage. The massive amount of destruction left by Hurricane Hazel earned it the nickname “the Bulldozer."