WRAL hurricane season outlook: Strong El Niño to impact tropical development

When the WRAL Severe Weather Team makes predictions for the upcoming tropical season, several key atmospheric and oceanic factors come into play.

Two of the most important are sea surface temperatures and whether the globe is experiencing an El Niño or La Niña pattern. They also compare current conditions to past hurricane seasons with similar setups to better understand what history may tell us.

This year, the biggest focus is on the rapidly developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

Forecast models continue to indicate that a very strong El Niño is likely to develop in the coming months. It could be one of the strongest events observed in more than 140 years. In fact, the transition into El Niño may be occurring at one of the fastest rates ever recorded.

Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have been warming rapidly, a classic sign that El Niño is developing. To officially qualify as a “Super El Niño,” temperatures in the equatorial Pacific must remain at least 2 degrees Celsius above average for a three-month period. Since 1950, that benchmark has only been reached five times.

The most recent Super El Niño occurred during 2015 and 2016.

Similarities to the 2015 Hurricane Season

The developing atmospheric pattern this year is beginning to resemble the setup observed during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

That year produced 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, all during a strong El Niño event.

Current Atlantic sea surface temperatures are showing notable similarities to that season. At the moment, there are two distinct areas of warmer-than-average water across the Atlantic basin, while the equatorial Pacific continues to heat up significantly.

During El Niño years, stronger upper-level winds often develop across the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic. These winds increase vertical wind shear, which can disrupt tropical systems by tilting storms and weakening their circulation before they are able to intensify.

As a result, El Niño years typically produce fewer tropical systems across the Atlantic basin overall.

Hurricane Threat Still Remains

Even though El Niño can suppress tropical development in the Atlantic, it does not eliminate the risk of impactful hurricanes.

One area to monitor early in the season is the Gulf, where sea surface temperatures are already warm enough to support tropical development.

Steering patterns this year may also favor storms developing north of the traditional Main Development Region in the Atlantic. If that trend materializes, it could increase the risk for systems tracking closer to the northeastern United States later in the season.

Meanwhile, the eastern and central Pacific basins are expected to experience a very active hurricane season, as El Niño conditions typically enhance tropical activity in those regions.

WRAL 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

At this time, the forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season calls for 11-14 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes.

That projection would place the season slightly below the long-term seasonal averages of 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

While the numbers suggest a somewhat quieter Atlantic season overall, it only takes one storm making landfall to create a devastating impact. The WRAL Severe Weather Team will closely monitor ocean temperatures and atmospheric patterns as the season progresses.